Historical Turnout in South Africa’s Elections

Figure 1 - South Africa Voter Turnout - National and Local Government Elections

South Africa’s Local Government Elections are expected to be held in November 2026 and will be the 6th Local Government Elections since 2000. The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) is empowered by the South African Constitution to process and announce the results of all local government election results, including by-elections. Results from 2000 up to the latest 2021 Local Government Elections, as well as all by-election results are posted to the IEC website. GetMetrix, as a CLEW partner organisation, is analysing historical results as we approach November 2026 for insights into local elections in South Africa.

(1) Constituencies

National Government elections count the votes for all political parties (and since 2024, independent candidates) and aggregate them across the country. For National elections, this means that the entire country is a single, mega-constituency and every vote counts towards a single total. For Provincial elections, the same calculation applies but results are aggregated to a provincial constituency. It doesn’t matter where a ballot is cast in National elections, and as long as a ballot is cast within the province, a voter has the right to vote at any polling station on Election Day (with some conditions applied).

Local Government elections work differently and return results for up to three (3) different election ballots within a confined geographical area. These areas, known as constituencies, are determined by the Municipal Demarcation Board. This restricts voter eligibility to only those voters who reside within the boundaries of a Constituency. In 2013, independent candidates in a by-election in Tlokwe took the IEC to court over failure to safeguard against “voter trucking”, accusing political parties of bussing voters into the Tlokwe constituency to vote for their party candidates. The Constitutional Court ruled that to prevent this type of cheating, which is only truly effective in by-elections in South Africa, the IEC should register the official residential address of all voters and limit their eligibility to vote in elections to their ward and constituency of residence. Therefore, unlike National and Provincial elections, the physical location in which a voter casts their ballots is crucial to the final outcomes of that poll.

(2) Two votes, or three?

Each constituency elects a Ward Councillor via direct ballot as well as a constituency representative based on a calculation of proportional ballots. In the major metropolitan areas, voters cast ballots for their Ward Councillors using one ballot and Representatives through the Proportional Representation ballots (2 votes). Outside of these major urban areas, voters cast a third ballot, in which they express their preference for representatives of their District Constituency, sometimes referred to as a DC40 vote. These District Constituencies are usually groups of 2 or more smaller municipalities which cover large areas with relatively sparse population density. The purpose of District Constituencies in South Africa is to improve the coordination and efficiency of these smaller municipalities by grouping them together for collective efforts.

(3) Fragmented political organisation

National elections have seen the consolidation of support for fewer parties, while at local government level, the opposite is the case. The 2024 National elections saw 21 parties win at least one seat in parliament, but 381/400 (95%) of the seats won by only 8 parties. In the 2021 Local Government Elections, 11 political parties won at least 50 seats combined across all municipalities, with an additional 621 seats won by smaller parties and 52 seats by independent candidates. In 2021, 95,000 candidates, including 1,500 independents, contested local elections for a record 325 political parties. Many of these parties only contest local elections, and specifically in one or a few wards and constituencies. What these numbers illustrate is that local government elections see much more diverse ballot papers, depending on where a voter is casting their ballot. Local community formations, often formed around a special interest or grievance have successfully campaigned within a constituency to great effect.

(4) Voter Apathy for Local Elections

Figure 1 illustrates registered voter turnout calculations for all national and local elections since 1994. The 2024 national voter turnout was the worst in South Africa’s history, and yet despite this record low turnout, the 2024 elections still saw more registered voters vote than in the highest ever turnout for a local government election (in 2016). Despite local government elections affecting the daily lives of every South African more directly than national and provincial votes, voters have historically stayed away from the polls during local elections when compared to National elections. Since the first local government elections in 2000, the smallest decrease in voter turnout was from the 2014 to 2016 elections, with a 19,4% decline in registered voter turnout. Unless the 2026 Local Government Elections break this trend, then registered voter turnout in the 2026 polls could be in the range of 40% turnout.

(5) Volatile Results increase as turnout decreases

Low voter turnout has several (mostly negative) consequences for democratic elections whether at national or local government level. GetMetrix analysis of the 2024 voter turnout showed that the African National Congress (ANC) won ~40% of seats in the elections while enjoying the political support of only 16% of adult, voting age South Africans. This doesn’t highlight vote rigging or fraud, but rather the continued absence of a large cohort of eligible voters from the democratic process. When voter turnout falls, volatility in predicting results increases. This is because it isn’t possible to predict which voters will turn out to vote, and which will stay away.

While historical trends suggest that lower voter turnout costs the established and larger parties most, it is nearly impossible to predict with any certainty which voters will choose to show up to vote if turnout falls to 40-45%. If voter turnout in a constituency falls to 40%, then only 4 out of 10 eligible voters are counted when allocating seats in that constituency. If all 4 of those voters in 2026 come from parties other than the incumbent party, this would lead to massive swings in representation in councils. Even if only 2 out of 4 voters vote for someone other than an incumbent, the changes in a council are still meaningful. An equally possible scenario sees ONLY voters for the incumbent candidate and party voting, concentrating power within a council in only 1 party. In low-turnout elections, the likelihood of volatile election changes increase, and the adage “Every vote counts” was never truer. But which voters show up to be counted is as important.